Pre-tourney Rankings
Northern Arizona
Big Sky
2015-16
Overall
Predictive Rating-14.9#345
Expected Predictive Rating-16.2#347
Pace72.9#100
Improvement-1.4#247

Offense
Total Offense-8.0#332
First Shot-5.2#308
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#329
Layup/Dunks-1.5#250
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.6#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#147
Freethrows-0.8#234
Improvement-1.3#246

Defense
Total Defense-6.9#329
First Shot-5.7#331
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#289
Layups/Dunks-2.1#266
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#329
Freethrows+0.3#153
Improvement-0.1#190
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Four0.0% n/a n/a
First Round0.0% n/a n/a
Second Round0.0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0.0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0.0% n/a n/a
Final Four0.0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.0% n/a n/a
National Champion0.0% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 13, 2015 169   @ Washington St. L 70-82 6%     0 - 1 -9.6 -11.0 +3.0
  Nov 16, 2015 94   @ Boise St. L 81-101 2%     0 - 2 -11.2 +3.2 -12.1
  Nov 18, 2015 27   @ Gonzaga L 52-91 1%     0 - 3 -22.6 -20.3 +2.3
  Nov 30, 2015 241   Norfolk St. L 66-70 24%     0 - 4 -11.6 -12.4 +0.7
  Dec 02, 2015 249   Hampton L 94-98 2OT 26%     0 - 5 -12.2 -1.7 -9.6
  Dec 05, 2015 110   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 55-72 3%     0 - 6 -10.2 -10.2 -0.2
  Dec 16, 2015 12   @ Arizona L 37-92 0.5%    0 - 7 -35.7 -26.0 -12.4
  Dec 20, 2015 77   @ Arkansas Little Rock L 57-84 2%     0 - 8 -16.9 -10.0 -6.9
  Dec 22, 2015 64   @ Tulsa L 55-90 2%     0 - 9 -23.7 -15.4 -6.9
  Dec 31, 2015 153   Montana L 84-90 2OT 12%     0 - 10 0 - 1 -8.1 -4.8 -2.3
  Jan 02, 2016 252   Montana St. L 72-74 OT 27%     0 - 11 0 - 2 -10.4 -14.9 +4.7
  Jan 09, 2016 342   @ Southern Utah W 73-63 37%     1 - 11 1 - 2 -1.5 -10.8 +8.9
  Jan 14, 2016 217   @ Idaho L 76-83 10%     1 - 12 1 - 3 -7.5 -4.0 -2.7
  Jan 16, 2016 205   @ Eastern Washington L 73-96 9%     1 - 13 1 - 4 -22.9 -6.0 -16.8
  Jan 21, 2016 200   North Dakota L 59-101 18%     1 - 14 1 - 5 -47.3 -16.8 -28.7
  Jan 23, 2016 310   Northern Colorado L 79-84 42%     1 - 15 1 - 6 -17.9 -8.3 -9.3
  Jan 28, 2016 146   @ Weber St. L 66-76 5%     1 - 16 1 - 7 -6.1 -2.6 -3.5
  Jan 30, 2016 276   @ Idaho St. L 66-88 16%     1 - 17 1 - 8 -26.5 -10.2 -15.6
  Feb 04, 2016 205   Eastern Washington L 73-84 19%     1 - 18 1 - 9 -16.8 -12.2 -4.0
  Feb 06, 2016 217   Idaho W 72-70 21%     2 - 18 2 - 9 -4.3 -1.3 -3.0
  Feb 11, 2016 252   @ Montana St. L 58-101 13%     2 - 19 2 - 10 -45.6 -14.5 -34.8
  Feb 13, 2016 153   @ Montana L 67-85 5%     2 - 20 2 - 11 -14.3 -1.8 -13.1
  Feb 18, 2016 276   Idaho St. W 81-68 33%     3 - 20 3 - 11 +2.7 +0.8 +1.4
  Feb 20, 2016 146   Weber St. L 74-77 12%     3 - 21 3 - 12 -4.9 -1.0 -3.8
  Feb 27, 2016 342   Southern Utah L 59-69 59%     3 - 22 3 - 13 -27.3 -22.2 -5.6
  Mar 03, 2016 259   @ Portland St. L 81-89 14%     3 - 23 3 - 14 -11.2 -5.5 -4.6
  Mar 05, 2016 278   @ Sacramento St. L 51-64 17%     3 - 24 3 - 15 -17.6 -18.8 +0.2
  Mar 08, 2016 205   Eastern Washington L 52-74 13%     3 - 25 -24.9 -25.0 -1.1
Projected Record 3.0 - 25.0 3.0 - 15.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 100.0 100.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15 100.0% 100.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%